On matched betting

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jbeshir:

brin-bellway:

jbeshir:

reasonableapproximation:

I decided to do a little bit of matched betting to earn a small amount of money. I used the guide at https://matchedbettingblog.com (and their calculator.

So far:

  • I made about £10 profit from Coral, which is lower than it should have been but partly because I misread their odds for my qualifying bet and lost ~£3 on that instead of ~£0.50. This was a few weeks ago, now I’m doing a second bet.
  • I chose ComeOn for my second because they had a £10 free bet, and small bets require less stake. They aren’t a very good website. I had trouble finding things to bet on and they don’t seem to offer very good odds. I expect to make about £6.50 profit from them. (I’m betting on France v Paraguay which started a few minutes ago.)
  • My betfair liability is ~£40 to make £7 on a £10 bet. To extract closer to £10 (well, £9.50 thanks to commission), liability needs to go up crazy fast. Also, if my free bet was x times larger, liability would also need to go up x times. (“Liability” here is not how much money I risk losing, but how much I need to have in betfair. If I lose that money it just means I gain money somewhere else. But betfair is the convenient place for it to be.)
  • This does not seem a very time-efficient way of earning money, though I do expect to get faster.
  • When I withdrew money from Coral it went into my paypal account. I think I can use that money as partial payment when I make charity donations, maybe? I’m not entirely sure how to use it if not, I can link a bank account to my paypal account but effort.
  • I should probably sign up for Smarkets, but I already had a betfair account so I’ve been using them.
  • It looks like I have a free £5 bet from betfair? I’m not sure where that’s from. Presumably it’s stake not returned, so… I’m not sure how to calculate my optimal strategy using it. I could do the arithmetic, but I might just use it to place a bet, for simplicity.
  • It’s possible to do this as an ongoing thing, but it doesn’t seem very convenient. It looks like you need to do things like “place bet on this game while it’s in play”, which is only like a two hour window (and ideally you place at half time to avoid odds moving, which is even shorter), and you only get a few pounds at a time.
  • I’ve heard that this does bad things to my credit score. I don’t know how much I should care.
  • I have not received noticeable amounts of annoying emails from Coral or Betfair. Or ComeOn, but too soon to tell with them.

I made upwards of a grand from this during the last year and a bit; I did it fairly intensively for a while farming easier/larger signup bonuses, and then just settled into collecting money whenever any of the betting sites I’d signed up for sent me an email offer I could turn into free money readily.

A common thing is that I get an email offering me a free in-play bet of up to £50 if I place a same-size pre-match bet, which means by being around at the time of the match and jumping on it I get a free £30-£35ish. Just today, though, I woke up to an email offer from Betfair for a refund on losses up to £100 on bets settled today or tomorrow, and set myself up with them against Smarkets to get a free guaranteed £75-£80ish out of that. The annoying emails are not really annoying! They are actually quite handy. They think you are a potential gambling addict and will offer you free money, and you can be like “sure thank you I will take your free money”.

Smarkets is better for any markets with enough volume; I would sign up, it’s worth it for the 2% commission vs 5%. You will still need to use Betfair for any markets where volume is low. You also will need Smarkets to match Betfair; if you try to match Betfair with themselves they will get angry and refuse to give you the offer, and maybe bar your account if especially pissy. Betfair never used to send out offers, but this is the second I’ve had from them in the past few months so maybe they’ve shifted strategies.

The biggest individual profits I made were from large signup free credit offers, which were in the region of £200 but had to be turned over lots of times so it only nets to about £120ish. /do/ account for accumulating losses to cycling; things which have to turned over more than ~5 times are liable to either be a lot less profitable than they look or actually a net loss, because each matched pair makes a small guaranteed loss leaking your profit.

Matched betting really does work! The big limiter is that you need to do a lot of research to understand what you’re doing, and you need to stick to common sports or else deal very carefully with differences in adjudication between markets, so we’re talking this being for quite clever people, and you need upwards of a grand in capital for any of the bigger things; to jump on that offer I got today, I had to have £800ish around to tie up for the next week or so (withdrawal is reliable and safe, but takes days, unlike the instant deposit) and I had to have it immediately on hand.

This limits the people who do it enough that we’re an acceptable business expense to hook the potential gambling addicts they’re after. It does emphasise how often they must hook people and how much they must get, though, that they will put so much free money out there as bait. That said, I’m not sure how many of the big signup offers are still around, and I get the impression an increasing number of offers are designed to be hard to match.

…are British gambling companies more trustworthy than American ones?

Word in American supplementary-income circles is, if you think you’ve found a loophole in a set of gambling rules that will allow you to get risk-free money out of it, the loophole will usually turn out not to exist. If necessary, casinos will straight-up lie about what they will and will not do, in order to prevent you from exploiting it. (I’ve heard so many stories of casinos that just *didn’t pay* a promised sign-up bonus, and didn’t respond to messages about it.)

*Sometimes* you get places that actually give you the bonuses they say they will, under the circumstances they say they will. But because a significant portion of them don’t, and you don’t know for sure which category any given instance will be in (and you can’t necessarily trust that it will at least be consistent person-to-person), the money is no longer risk-free: you’re meta-gambling.

Trustworthy to do what they said they will when they said they would, yes. There’s regulators that insist on it.

In general if they pick up on you as probably pulling matched shenanigans your account can get closed after, or much more commonly, flagged as no longer eligible for offers (I think two of mine have been?), but they cannot arbitrarily rescind an offer that brought them trade AFTER extending it, and in the rare cases of smaller iffier companies which have done that, threatening them with the regulator has brought them to behave.

In general, the terms they have do forbid guaranteed win betting, so if you find one of the rare offers which can be exploited within that single provider without pulling in an exchange for a guaranteed profit you are liable to have your account closed and money refunded (this happened to me with Sky Bets about two years before I got into matched betting, they ill-advisedly put out an offer which included roulette, so you just turned your money over on that and withdrew. they cancelled everyone who did that).

In theory, those terms might preclude matched betting- however, they do not have access to the betting exchanges and can’t see that you are doing it, and without the ability to prove you are doing it they must do what they said they were going to do. So matched bettors are just a cost of business they have to bite.

Much more common in the smaller iffier companies are terms which are impossible; a free bonus that must be bet 20 times before any winnings can be withdrawn or something, at minimum rates and overheads that prevent it ever being profitable. Or a huge list of conditions that in practice you are going to struggle to meet. Those you just don’t touch.

Some of this is because of gambling’s unambiguously generally legal if regulated state in the UK and much of Europe; the bigger betting companies are big brands; Sky, for example, is the big satellite TV company, and Sky Bets is a betting subsidiary they made, comparable to if the US had a Verizon Bets or something. Discourages scumminess. I think some of it might be that casinos are just plain bad relative to other kinds of businesses even within gambling for this, though; I would be leery trying it in person for the first time. I am not sure where that intuition comes from.

(I would also note that the exchanges generally don’t care if you are doing matched betting. They profit just fine- you are effectively taking the offers and “selling” them on the exchange to other exchange participants, and they get their commission in the process. It’s only the end extending the offer which cares.)


Tags:

#(June 2017) #(I was actually referring to online casinos but I didn’t bother to clarify) #conversational aglets #gambling #adventures in human capitalism

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comparativelysuperlative:

brin-bellway:

comparativelysuperlative:

brin-bellway:

elodieunderglass:

scavengedluxury:

Simon De Montfort, having been defeated and killed by Royalists, his body mutilated and his extremities distributed among his enemies as trophies, faces the final indignity: T.K. Maxx. Leicester, April 2017.

This will cause an extra parallel-universe cognitive glitch for my American friends, and I am excited for that to happen here

I’m amused to see Elodie’s addition, because yes, that is exactly what happened.

(Me, upon seeing this picture: ”–wait what? What???”

Me, upon scrolling down just enough to see the original caption: “You mean that’s not even what the picture is supposed to be about?”)

But why would they even–

The company modified the name to T.K. Maxx to avoid “confusion with the established British retail chain T J Hughes (which is not affiliated with TJX)“‘

Ah, okay.

(…wait, but if it’s not called that in Britain, why is there a bit in a Jasper Fforde book that goes like this:

“You imprisoned her in a clothing store?”

“It’s not really a clothing store; that’s just the cover story. Temporal Jail, Maximum Security. Didn’t you ever wonder why it was called TJ Maxx?”)

Because the rest of that acronym was “Temporal-J Maximum Security.” I always wondered why the “J” didn’t stand for anything!

And of course it would be entirely on-theme for a Thursday Next book to have editions with slightly different text.

>>And of course it would be entirely on-theme for a Thursday Next book to have editions with slightly different text.<<

Yeah, I wondered if maybe that just wasn’t in the original, but I’m not sure how cleanly you could excise the TJ Maxx joke given that a plot conversation takes place there. Was Aornis stuck at the checkout of a different store in the original, possibly one with an impenetrably British joke? (But a reference being impenetrably obscure has never stopped Jasper Fforde before.)

Does anyone have a British copy of First Among Sequels they can check?

>>I always wondered why the “J” didn’t stand for anything!<<

I did some Googling and at first it looked like you were thinking of a bit in The Woman Who Died A Lot, which I haven’t read yet. I was thinking of First Among Sequels.

But then I went and looked at my copy of First Among Sequels, and that doesn’t specify what the J stands for, either.

I mean, I might have just filled it in from context, but it kind of looks like we have a Berenstain situation on our hands in more ways than one.

It could be the same store; they’d just have to make it “Temporal-K” instead. Having a letter that doesn’t stand for anything is inelegant, but if he knew it was going to have to make sense on our side of the Atlantic…

Or maybe the K did stand for something and the translators had to just cut out the joke.

#berenstjin


Tags:

#(May 2017) #conversational aglets #unreality cw #Thursday Next

Interlude 8, Page 2 (Opening Volley)

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{{Title link: https://parhelioncomic.com/comic/interlude-8-page-2-opening-volley/ }}

parhelioncomic:

brin-bellway:

parhelioncomic:

Ahh, Basilisk, it’s been ages since you’ve directly appeared. Welcome back!

Reblogs are greatly appreciated!

Start of chapter | Read from the beginning | Patreon (Read one page into the future)

Why do people use video chats with Basilisk, anyway? Seems like it’s asking for trouble, and “death by videophone software glitch” is not one of the better ways to go.

(Limitations of the webcomic medium?)

Mostly because “Basilisk’s face censored with an emoji” was too good a visual gag to pass up.

(Usually it’s just voice channels, though.)


Tags:

#(March 2017) #conversational aglets #Parhelion #death tw

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theshadiertwin:

brin-bellway:

theshadiertwin:

brin-bellway:

@theshadiertwin asked:

Welcome to Decoder Ring Theatre fandom!  What episode are you on?

shortly followed by: Ah!  I see you caught up!  I’ll amend my question, then – what was one of your favourite episodes!

I try to only answer asks indirectly because of the first-degree ask bug, and normally that works fine. On the other hand, if I post the ask unanswered and then give my actual answer in a reblog, it won’t go in the public tag, and that doesn’t seem suitable for this. I’m compromising by putting ask and answer in a text-post OP.

To pick one…well, the one that comes to mind is “The Golden Idol”. I love when characters think through the implications of their superpowers. The Mad Monkey’s plan here is *magnificently* clever, creating an entire fake person out of glamours and memory implants.

I spent a few minutes of this one facepalming when it looked like he’d enthralled the Flying Squirrel, seeing as how the show had *just gotten done explaining* that you can use mind control to prevent people from getting mind-controlled by others, which means that–as someone with a mind-controlling partner whom she would trust with her very soul–Kit Baxter has possibly the best access to psychic shielding on the planet. Shouldn’t they have learned their lesson after Diablos?

And then it turns out that our heroes *totally thought of this*, and she’s actually been faking being under the Mad Monkey’s spell this whole time so that he would let his guard down. That was a beautiful moment.

I love clever plans, and I love when they’re defeated by out-clevering (both the bluffing and how the Red Panda figured out what was going on in the first place), and basically cleverness is my narrative weakness.

(When I skimmed through the episode again just now to see if I’d gotten it more or less right, I heard Kit mention Ajay Shah as a potential suspect, and I was like “Hey! I know who that is now! Neat!”. Once I’ve finished the rest of the pilots and tie-ins, I’m going to have to re-listen to the series at *least* once to hear how it sounds from the perspective of having the whole thing. I *know* I didn’t get as much out of the “The World Next Door” as I could have, for one.)

If out-clevering is your thing, I can see why RPA works well for you!  I do love those episodes, but a part of me always prefers when a villain (usually the Genie, tbh) tries to make some clever complicated plan specifically to counter the Boss, but overlooks Squirrel and her Flying Fists of Anti-Magic Justice.  It just makes my heart sing when she makes the henchmen cry.

Re: Earth-2/Sillyverse/The Originals, don’t go in expecting what we got from the main storyline.  Not only was there not enough time to fill out the plot, there’s a lot of other rough edges as well.  Some fans can’t get past that, and I understand that.  As for myself, I love the Sillyverse – there are some Canadian History in-jokes that the more serious tone of the main plot just can’t work in, and for all that Dr. Anna is less active in the plot than Kit, she’s still a woman who can stand on her own two feet – both in the lab and in the field.  Besides which, there’s no episode in all of the DRT catalogue that hits all my hurt/comfort buttons quite like the Sillyverse episode “The Judas Boats”.  I keep meaning to write a Red/Baboon/Anna fic based on a certain incident in that episode, but I don’t want to spoil it for you.  Even if it’s not the kind of thing that really grabs you, I do suggest giving it a listen – there are occasional references in the main story, especially in the WWII episodes, that will make you grin a bit on a re-listen!

(also, hope you don’t mind, but I’ve mentally pegged you as Harry Kelley in our little tumblr network of agents!)

>>don’t go in expecting what we got from the main storyline.<<

*nod* I know. I heard them saying how different it was in the Season One Spectacular (which I did listen to, but several seasons late because I didn’t notice it existed at first).

>>there are some Canadian History in-jokes<<

My grasp of history is often a bit shaky in general, plus as a first-generation immigrant* I’m missing a lot of the cultural osmosis one might get from growing up in Canada. (I only just found out a week or two ago what the Red Ensign was named after.)

>>(also, hope you don’t mind, but I’ve mentally pegged you as Harry Kelley in our little tumblr network of agents!)<<

Why’s that, if you can put it into words?

(Big shoes to fill, but at least I’ve got a while to do it in.)

*I moved to Canada when I was 13. The 10th anniversary will be this fall**!

**I don’t think we’ve made any plans yet, but my family should do something extra-special this July to celebrate the 150th anniversary of Confederation and our 10th Canada Day. (Whatever we end up doing, I intend to wear my citizenship pin while I do it.)

Hey, happy 10 years here in Canada!

On the surface, you’re the newest one, I guess. The rest of us in the DRT tumblr circle have been trading posts around for a few years on and off – I think the oldest post was about four years ago? And as for myself, I was active on the AudioDramaTalk board about nine or ten years ago, back when Gregg Taylor (and Scott Moyle) were directly interacting with fans on a regular basis.  I’m not much older than you, but I’ve been an agent for a long, long time.  But like Harry, especially young Harry, you’ve got an enthusiasm for the show that’s exciting to see, and reminds me of why I love it!


Tags:

#(February 2017) #conversational aglets #Red Panda Adventures #our home and cherished land

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somnilogical:

brin-bellway:

somnilogical:

beaniemilliner:

Real talk; where are the good hypnosis communities at

Getting real tired of transphobic shit etc. and would like somewhere to hang out and be into hypnosis without having to put with garbage people

Neither @brin-bellway nor @bannableoffense are garbage people to my knowledge. (Though they may separately be sanitation workers.)

@adzolotl manages to hypnotize trans people without them being annoyed. (Though perhaps they’re too hypnotized to??)

And … none of them seem to know each other in a hypnosis-y way. But they may be able to *direct* you to community things if you ask?

>>(Though they may separately be sanitation workers.)<<

Well, I have been experimenting with dumpster diving…

>>And … none of them seem to know each other in a hypnosis-y way.<<

I’m aware of Banny, though I don’t read her blog. I’m aware of @adzolotl​, too, and I do read his blog. (I’m not sure we’ve ever had more than short, shallow conversations about it, though.)

>>But they may be able to *direct* you to community things if you ask?<<

The only members of hypno-fetish Tumblr I follow myself are @tennfan2​, @ellaenchanting​, and @hypnoticharlequin​, because I try to keep the amounts of naked people, non-con porn, and Discourse on my dash relatively low, and all of those really limit your options. (However, since the Discourse is often about social justice, and the hypno-fetishist is almost invariably on the pro-SJ side, you may actually find the amount of Discoursing around here reassuring.) I also read @diaryofasnowflake manually sometimes.

Tennfan, Ella: I seem to recall you’ve both done welcoming-wagon-type stuff before, right? Can you help show Beanie the ropes, so to speak?

>>#does tagging people violate the NAP?<<

The what? If you mean something about revealing somebody’s kink without their consent, all of the people you tagged have been pretty open about it on Tumblr, so it seems reasonable to me.

The NAP is the non-aggression principle. Which is an ethical rule that says that it is immoral to instigate aggression against someone. (Unless they want to be aggressed. Self-defense and attempts at de-escalation are also usually considered moral here.)

The tag was self-deprecation about my hesitancy in tagging people in things because my brain worries that it will harm them. Which it probably won’t. If it did, I think I can count on them or someone close to them to tell me.

The mechanism of amusement sprung from the contrast between (the central examples of (the most conceptually available, not the most common uses of) the NAP such as acting in self defense when people hit you or shooting someone who has tresspassed on your property) and (tagging someone in a tumblr post).

[ https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Non-aggression_principle ]


Tags:

#(February 2017) #conversational aglets #sexuality and lack thereof

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inrealityadream:

Who the fuck names horses

 

crystalsoulslayer:

No horse in these races can have the same name as any other horse that has ever entered in the history of horseracing. They had appropriate ones at first. Then, slowly, like profiles on the Gaia forums, all the good user IDs URLs horse names got taken. Currently, they’re being named by rich old white guys. If our generation ever starts participating in this, I anticipate solemn-faced announcers on ESPN498 speculating on the Vegas odds for x_FURY-666-WRATH_x.

 

tkingfisher:

I look forward to TheRealDrizztDo’Urden69 taking the Triple Crown.

 

sinesalvatorem:

Not necessarily. If you’re creative enough, you can invent a euphoninic name that no one has ever used before. Or, if you aren’t, you can just make a computer do it for you like ilzolende did.

 

brin-bellway:

I look forward to Ilzolende taking the Triple Crown.

 

sinesalvatorem:

Can I train you, ilzolende? I want to be the very best, like no one ever was….

 

serinemolecule:

For the longest time, Starcraft the horse was what you got if you looked up “starcraft” on Wikipedia.

Not even a disambiguation page! You just went straight to the horse.

It took so many edit wars to get it to the current state where Wikipedia finally accepted that most people typing “starcraft” into Wikipedia are looking for the video game, not the horse.

@serinemolecule replied to this post with:

@brin-bellway re: “how to fact check” – the change was done here: https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Starcraft&amp;oldid=27465173 – but idk how to find an argument from 13 years ago


Tags:

#oops forgot to post this #conversational aglets

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rustingbridges:

dzamieponders:

rustingbridges:

nuclearspaceheater:

brin-bellway:

nuclearspaceheater:

I just realized that I’m right-shifted. I have been using only the right shift key for capitalization for an unknown period of time, and deliberately using the left shift key feels awkward and makes me mistype my passwords.

Are you left-handed? I feel like the reason I’m left-shifted is to keep my right index finger closer to the mouse touchpad, but that might be an after-the-fact justification.

No. Right-handed.

That’s very unusual. On a related topic, which thumb do you space with?

I use left shift, right thumb for space. 

I blame WASD gaming – if I try to use my left for space, I hold it down for a bit too long because I’m used to jumping with it in shooters.

Yeah, when I did an informal survey the vast majority of people used the right thumb for spacing. Left handers weren’t more likely to use left thumb, but I also only had two in the sample, so.

I didn’t ask what hand people shifted with, because I didn’t know anybody left shifted.

I left shift / alt / ctrl / super, which is supported heavily by the fact that keyboards are always fucking up the right hand versions of these keys and alt right gets overloaded in a lot of keyboard layouts


Tags:

#(January 2017) #conversational aglets #is the blue I see the same as the blue you see #(right thumb)


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Ella Reads Hypnosis Research (So You Don’t Have To)

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ellaenchanting:

brin-bellway:

tennfan2:

ellaenchanting:

Do you want to do hypnosis? Do you want to do hypnosis WITH SCIENCE? 

As much as research tends to lag behind what people are actually doing with hypnosis, the last few years have actually seen a pretty big increase in research done on and scientific curiosity about hypnosis. My personal theory is that this is because there’s an increasing number of studies coming out saying that hypnosis is A THING in and of itself (outside of, although often in addition to, the influence of factors like authority and cultural expectations).  The hypnosis that shows up in research is obviously differently-applied (and often narrower) than what we tend to do as hypnokinksters/hypno-enthusiasts. A lot of hypnosis research relies on old, old methodologies and constraints of trying to standardize procedures.  Still, I really like peeking in at the research that is happening and seeing if I can learn anything. 

Join me, won’t you?

Referenced article (for those playing along at home): https://www.researchgate.net/publication/307604862_Nuances_and_Uncertainties_Regarding_Hypnotic_Inductions_Toward_a_Theoretically_Informed_Praxis

Keep reading

All of you should, obviously, read this.

Also, “facilitative sensory stimulation” is now a fetish on FetLife, which we all should add. It’s the greatest euphemism I’ve heard in a while.

Ella: I’m incredibly curious about what a facilitative sensory stimulation suggestion is and cannot get to the referenced article. Kinesthetic inductions? I have someone imagine they’re on a mountain and play the sound of yodeling in the background? I have no clue. 

Okay, so I looked into the article you couldn’t reach (yay university subscriptions!). While it never actually uses the term “facilitative sensory stimulation”, I skimmed the article a bit and found this quote regarding debriefing:

Subjects in the experiential expectancy modification conditions were told the following:

“We tried to help you become hypnotized by making sure that you would have the first few experiences I suggested to you. Remember when I told you to see colors on the wall and to hear music? Whenever I said to imagine a color, we turned on a colored light that made the room look a tiny bit that color. When I told you to imagine that you could hear music, we turned on a tape. We did that only for the lights and the music. Everything else you did entirely on your own, and you did very well indeed.”

So that’s probably what facilitative sensory stimulation means: making the first couple “hallucinations” happen in reality as convincers.

(Sorry to burst anyone’s bubble. But hey, now you know what they were on about!)

Thanks @brin-bellway! I figured it was something like this. I’ve tried something similar and have had it both work and backfire. (When it backfired it was because the person perceived it as me tricking them because I thought they were stupid- so better rapport and a better on-the-fly explanation may have helped.)

So briefly- Tip #6: Use convincers! But not to the point where your subject thinks you’re being an ass!


Tags:

#(December 2016) #conversational aglets #sexuality and lack thereof #the power of science

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brin-bellway:

justice-turtle:

Well, it’s not scientific, but I can think of maybe 2-3 people (including me) who started out fairly far to the right and are now pretty far to the left, and one person (you) who started out left a ways and has stayed there. The rest of the people I follow whose… political trajectories I’m aware of, which is maybe a dozen or so, seem to have started out sort of… mildly leftish-centrist and have moved further left with time. Like, there’s – I know there’s a norm of teenage rebellion and finding your own path, but my impression is that wide swings across the ideological center are fairly rare and may involve some kind of conversion/aversion experience.

(Bear in mind here that I’m very depressed, so this next part, I’m probably being more of a catty little bitch than is called for. But – like, I think we’ve discussed, you tend to run into a thing where people are like “Well, nobody is born feminist/whatever, we have to learn, go easy on us?” I genuinely don’t recall if that’s ever been me saying that, and like I say I could be totally wrong, but… like, my completely unsupported impression is, that kind of remark comes more from people who were born centrist, have liked to consider themselves quite left-wing progressive, and are just finding out that they’ve got a long fucking way to go and are feeling defensive about it? Like, pulling an example out of the air, somebody says “you know g*psy is a slur, right?”, and instead of “oh shit! no i didn’t know, sorry!”, they reach more for “don’t judge me! i couldn’t have known!” it’s… like i say, i could be full of shit, but for me myself, that identity-thing of “don’t judge me, i didn’t know any better” got lost somewhere around the same time as “gayness is a SIN”. i mean, i still don’t like being seen as a fuckup, i imagine nobody does, but my mental image of people who say “nobody is born knowing whatever” is of kids who… still have that belief in their own Moral Rectitude, you know? who have never yet had to integrate into their identity the fact that they are A Person Who Can And Does Fuck Up. who feel like they need to defend the idea that they couldn’t have done any better, defend their… their honor, and that’s their go-to excuse because idk it fits their world paradigm or whatever.)

(sorry. i say “kids”. given that this conversation involves a discussion of authors younger than me having their shit together, and that you also are quite a lot younger than me, that’s probably a bad choice of words. but i’m failing to come up with a better one. :P)

again. large grain of salt. possibly a barrel of salt. or a very large crystal. a hunk of salt. i’m tired and depressed and pretty sure i’m not being terribly articulate. but that’s my impression: most people our age have started out pretty centrist, and i’d bet the ones who overgeneralize about “nobody grows up far-leftist” are included in that centrist-moving-leftward group.

Hmm. The thing is–and I know I often elide this–I don’t think I was exactly raised far-left per se. Like, there were groups (the ones that come to mind are black people and gay people) where people talked positively about them, but you never seemed to actually meet any. Trans people were mostly not on our radar, and when they were they were mostly viewed with vaguely benevolent confusion.

But I was raised left enough that when I did meet full-on social-justice folk, they didn’t feel foreign. I wasn’t exactly raised in SJ culture, but the place I was raised was…adjacent, somewhere close enough that SJ proper felt of-a-piece with it.

>>they reach more for “don’t judge me! i couldn’t have known!”<<

For me, personally, while that reaction is correlated with childhood because I hang out on the Internet more as an adult, I think the main distinction is actually speech vs text. Offline!me’s* primary reaction to conflict is fight; Brin’s primary reaction is flight. My first emotion when called wrong is anger, but given a short time (usually short enough that textual communication will inherently give it to you) the anger is overwhelmed by fear. “If I crush the opposition they’ll stop hurting me!” becomes “As far as I can tell, I have never managed to successfully crush anyone, and I have no reason to think this will be the exception. Trying and failing to crush them will only prolong the fight and its associated pain. The only way of ending a fight that reliably works for me is complete and unconditional surrender, so that’s what I should do.” (Now that I’ve spent a lot of time in that frame of mind where my cowardice can shine through, I can even manage flight reactions in offline conflicts sometimes.)

(Apparently a lot of people are more the opposite? I mean, I guess they must be, or we wouldn’t have stuff along the lines of the Greater Internet Fuckwad Theory. In a twisted sort of way, I suppose the existence of opposite people helped me; while I haven’t managed a 100% perfect record, I learned very fast that I could avoid a lot of fuckups by staying very quiet, observing, and letting other people make beginners’ mistakes for me.)

*My legal name would be less clunky, and I wouldn’t mind you knowing it, but I’m writing this publicly.

My commentary tags:

#it’s not really Learning to Accept That I Can Be Wrong #as much as #Learning It Is In My Self-Interest to Pretend to Accept That I Can Be Wrong #(people who are not motivated primarily by self-interest confuse me and I am often tripped up by them) #(what do you mean you’re professing [insert political stance here] because you think it’s correct) #(and not because you fear social repercussions for not supporting it or because it would benefit you personally?) #(how does *that* work?)

justice-turtle’s reply:

re your tags: I have a lot of trouble remembering that self-interest actually exists? as a thing people feel? emotions are *weird*, man. (in other notes, offline!me is extremely quiet and shy, while online!me often talks a big fight, but idk that either of those is “real” at this point. my identity / sense of self is super malleable right now. which might tie into self-interest / survival skills on another level, idek…) *wanders off making thinky faces*


Tags:

#(December 2016) #conversational aglets #replies #our roads may be golden or broken or lost #is the blue I see the same as the blue you see

{{previous post in sequence}}


mugasofer:

brin-bellway:

justice-turtle:

this is me thinking out loud some more, not exactly replying, but.

“kindness costs nothing” is a popular saying for why you should be nice. but if you give what costs you nothing, what merit is there in that? if you give only kindness and empathy without material, measurable help, are you giving anything at all?

it comes back to christianity, again. it always does for me. talk about brainwashing.

specifically: the widow’s mite. (a coin, like a farthing or a centime, not a bug.) the story goes – jesus was chilling near the donations box at the temple, and these rich holier-than-thou people came and put big bags of money into the box and made a big deal about how much they donated. and then this poor widow woman came and put in two halfpennies, or mites as some version of the Bible translated it.

and jesus said “see you should be like her. those other people all gave money they didn’t need, and they made a big deal about it so people would think they were holy. she gave god all the money she had, and she didn’t make any fuss about it, because she loves and trusts god That Much. y’all do that too k?”

so, yanno, i mean, brainstuff. giving more than you can afford is How To Be Good. give money, time, gifts, food, but always give what you need for yourself, not just the stuff you could spare or didn’t want anyway; that stuff is no good cos you’re not giving it From The Heart. this is the mindset.

“faith without works is dead.” i think that’s from the book of st james. it’s a Really Big Thing in the catholics vs protestants headbutting match, bc if you boil them both down to a reductio ad absurdam in the bottom of the stockpot (i might be getting sleepy and overextending my metaphors), protestants say “if you have faith you are saved! doesn’t matter what you do!” and catholics say “if you do good things you are saved! doesn’t matter what you believe! although you should still be catholic cos of reasons.” ^_^ so – like brin said, we have no concept of supererogation (i.e. where is the mark that when you go above and beyond that you are going Above and Beyond), you have to do all the good things. and if you catholic this thing in your brain, you cannot be a good unless you are always doing the good things. (idk how that psychological part works if you are protestant. i never really talked religion with any observant mainstream protestants.)

so but like. there’s a line from hamilton the musical, i see it on gifsets. “(death) takes and it takes and it takes”. and i feel like… you give and you give and you give, and there’s a void out there of infinite… it’s like an infinite sponge. it can soak up everything you give it, your whole existence, and you won’t have even made a tiny little difference to the infinity of need. you give and you give and you give, and when you’ve given everything you are, it’s just like you never existed at all.

i know it’s late and i’m getting morose. i had thoughts about dying for a cause too but i’m not sure what they were yet. and what stuntmuppet said about revolutionary selfishness, ethan would like to expand on that at GREAT LENGTH. not tonight tho.

i will mention though cos i think it fits here. i keep feeling like a good way to do assisted suicide, like officially incorporated into society and everything, would be to drain out the person’s blood, put it all in those donation bags like the red cross uses, and then you could give the blood to other people who actually wanted to stay alive. it would be nice. if that was available i would probably do it. and i suspect part of why it seems so appealing is that you can literally give your life helping others live. (also it wouldn’t hurt much and you could just quietly slip off and stop caring.)

The thing is, food still has nutrition regardless of whether you gave it From The Heart. A dollar buys a dollar’s worth of stuff, no matter how small a percentage it is of the donator’s net worth*. And someone who gives a smaller, sustainable portion of their wealth can end up donating more over the long run than someone who goes out in a blaze of glory.

Blood donation is actually a very good example of that. An adult human body contains somewhere around 10 pints of blood, depending on the individual. The regulation quantity and frequency of blood donation is 1 pint every 8 weeks. Someone who donates every 2 months for 2 years has donated more blood than someone who gave every drop in their body, and can still donate again in another 2 months. (And, you know, they’re alive, for whatever that’s worth.) (Some people take longer to recover and can’t sustainably/safely donate every 2 months, but even if you can only do every 4 months, or every 6, all you have to do is live 6 years to outproduce a one-time 10-pint donation.)

I’ve never met a cause worth dying for, but some causes are better served by living, anyway.

(This argument does assume a basically consequentialist mindset, that the amount of help you provide is more important than how you felt while you were doing it. As you described above, there are moral systems that don’t accept this assumption. That’s something fundamental enough that I don’t think I could really talk you in or out of it: if you think “things would go better if you became a consequentialist” is a good reason to become a consequentialist, you already are one.)

I swear I have seen writings from charity nerds about how (and why) to avoid burning yourself out, but I’m having some trouble finding them. Perhaps the charity nerds among my followers know of some?

*Although sometimes a dollar can buy more than a dollar’s worth of stuff if you have enough of them, because of bulk discounts. This is why–though food donations are certainly better than nothing–food banks generally prefer monetary donations: they get excellent discounts and can stretch your dollar farther than you can.

It’s worth noting that, in both Mark and Luke, the story of the Widow’s Mite (from the KJV, which translated the relevant copper coin into the then-contemporary mite) is immediately preceded by a passage condemning … well:

45 While all the people were listening, Jesus said to his disciples,46 “Beware of the teachers of the law. They like to walk around in flowing robes and love to be greeted with respect in the marketplaces and have the most important seats in the synagogues and the places of honor at banquets.47 They devour widows’ houses and for a show make lengthy prayers. These men will be punished most severely.”

These are clearly part of the same anecdote, and some commentators argue they should be interpreted as the same passage – rich people take from the poor, then laud themselves for being generous with their money. The widow hasn’t helped more than anyone else; she’s been cost more than anyone else.


Of course, Jesus was famously in favor of people selling their possessions and becoming wandering monks who may or may not get murdered for their troubles – it was, after all, his own career path – so maybe this theory is wrong, and it’s just a feel-good message.

Still, I think it’s important that Jesus never advocates starving. Letting people stab you in the face, sure, but not starving. Wandering preachers get fed. (And there’s a limited market for them, and it’s hard to build a movement entirely out of penniless wandering preachers; which is one reason I tend to lean toward interpretations where it’s decidedly not meant as a universal calling.)

The Widow is merely cutting things rather close, not sacrificing her life, even in the standard interpretation. 


No, I think the closest thing to the standard interpretation would be the also currency-nicknamed Parable of the Talents.

In the parable, with which I daresay most readers are familiar, different servants are given different amounts of money to look after. Two servants invest them and make good returns, and thus are rewarded; one merely holds onto it and then gives it back, and is punished.

If you just give what was given to you, then what’s the point? You’re supposed to invest it, to make more.

One person can’t save the world. Ten pints of blood is nothing against the darkness. But invest it? Use that life wisely? And that can become a whole flood of blood in what is an increasingly sticky metaphor.

Of course, even that probably isn’t enough. A servant given two talents isn’t going to make the same amount of money as one given five. But it’s better than handing back your seed money with nothing to show for it.


catholics say “if you do good things you are saved! doesn’t matter what you believe! although you should still be catholic cos of reasons.” ^_^ so – like brin said, we have no concept of supererogation (i.e. where is the mark that when you go above and beyond that you are going Above and Beyond), you have to do all the good things. and if you catholic this thing in your brain, you cannot be a good unless you are always doing the good things. (idk how that psychological part works if you are protestant. i never really talked religion with any observant mainstream protestants.) 

Many but not all Protestant denominations regard supererogation as a Catholic heresy.


Focusing on the bottom line is important. But there are two opposite, but related, mistakes in effective altruism that stem from focusing on it too much.

One is, of course, the rich person who goes “oh I saved fifty lives this year, why not buy another yacht?” TBH I have never encountered this mistake, but it definitely happens with non-EA charitable movements, and I don’t know a lot of rich people, it probably happens. 

But the other mistake is the opposite. 

Most people aren’t rich. It’s easy to look at your bottom line and say this is too small, I’m not doing enough because you don’t have very much to give.

But this misses the entire point. 

Utilitarianism not about getting the bigger number. It’s about getting the biggest number. Whether this is larger or smaller than the other guy’s number, whether it’s large or small on an absolute scale (probably small), is not a concern.

If you only have two pennies, and you invest them wisely, then you are a better investor than the rich guy who has an enormous amount of money and spends half of it on a yacht. Simultaneously, he has more money. But you’re still better.

Tithing is a good idea, and I’m glad EA has adopted it. 

But you have to apply that to other things too. Giving more than 10% of your blood, of your life, is definitely supererogatory.

I’m not saying that sacrifice is bad, but for most people, you run into diminishing returns after the first few sacrifices. Being smart about what you do with that sacrifice is far more effective.

And yeah, sometimes that involves “wasting” time making yourself better; using the perfume instead of selling it, being Mary instead of Martha.


Tags:

#(October 2016) #(I have decided to queue aglet posts; queue is currently set to four times per day) #conversational aglets #death tw #suicide cw #scrupulosity cw