Anonymous asked: rot13ed due to mentioning n s f w topics. not sure if you’re comfortable receiving this kind of ask, ignore it if it bothers you. “cbea vf n purnc xabpxbss irefvba bs fbzrguvat ryfr” bxnl Ze. oenva travhf cyrnfr gryy zr jurer v pna svaq gur erny yvsr crbcyr orvat vasyngrq yvxr n onyybba (naq abg orvat unezrq orlbaq zvyq rzoneenffzrag va gur cebprff)? orpnhfr v jbhyq irel zhpu yvxr gb svaq guvf. lbh unir ab vqrn ubj zhpu v jbhyq yvxr gb svaq guvf. (npghnyyl, lbh’ir orra ba gur vagrearg zbfg bs lbhe yvsr. lbh cebonoyl unir n cerggl tbbq vqrn bs ubj zhpu v’q yvxr gb svaq guvf.)

{{Translation of ask:

“porn is a cheap knockoff version of something else” okay Mr. brain genius please tell me where i can find the real life people being inflated like a balloon (and not being harmed beyond mild embarrassment in the process)? because i would very much like to find this. you have no idea how much i would like to find this. (actually, you’ve been on the internet most of your life. you probably have a pretty good idea of how much i’d like to find this.)}}

eightyonekilograms:

oligetcetera-deactivated2023072:

On the contrary, this is a delightfully unique ask! Thanks, even if I can’t give a satisfying answer. But since you did:

Nyevtug, fb svefg, V jnag gb gunax lbh orpnhfr guvf jnf n ernyvgl purpx ntnvafg zl fhccbfvgvbaf. Gur fgngrzrag nf V bevtvanyyl znqr vg qbrfa’g fgnaq hc gb zhpu fpehgval; abg whfg va pnfrf yvxr lbhef ohg va rira gur zbfg znvafgernz gnfgr. Snagnfvrf nera’g ernyvgl be rira n cbbe irefvba bs ernyvgl, naq gurer ner cyragl bs pnfrf jurer gurl’er npgviryl orggre; pregnvayl gur onqarff qbrfa’g sybj bire: vg jbhyq or na hahfhny zbanzbebhf crefba jub qvqa’g fbzrgvzrf snagnfvmr nobhg bgure crbcyr, rira gubhtu purngvat vf jebat; gur oybbqyhfg vaqhytrq va fubbgref be zrtnybznavn va fgengrtl tnzrf jbhyq or qnatrebhf va nabgure pbagrkg ohg svar va vg, naq fb ba. V jba’g fnl vg arire pneevrf bire nf na veba cevapvcyr ohg pregnvayl V jbhyqa’g ybbx ng na vasyngvba srgvfu nfxnapr va gur fnzr jnl V zvtug fbzrbar jvgu rynobengr snagnfvrf bs gbeghevat fgenatref gb qrngu, rira gubhtu npghnyyl vasyngvat fbzrbar jbhyq or onq, nf lbh abgr. V yvxr tevzqnex ECTf naq gurl’er gurve bja tbbq guvat naq abg n cnyr ersyrpgvba bs npghny tevz qnexarff, juvpu vf onq.

Jung V guvax V jbhyq fgvyy fgnaq ol vf gung V guvax cbeabtencul, ng gur irel yrnfg va gur zbqny pnfr, vf n fhcrefgvzhyhf va n jnl V frr xvaq bs rirelguvat geraqvat gbjneqf. Cbeabtencul vf cebonoyl yrff qnatrebhf guna zbfg bgure fhcrefgvzhyv bs guvf fbeg orpnhfr hayrff lbh tb bss gur qrrc raq lbh’er abg fcraqvat sberire ba vg, nygubhtu V guvax gurer’f na vapragvir tenqvrag gbjneqf gung. Jura zl qnq pnzr bire ur jbhyq whfg ynl ba gur pbhpu naq jngpu Snvy Nezl ivqrbf sbe ubhef; boivbhfyl gurer’f n ovttre vffhr gurer jvgu yvxr jbexcynpr rkunhfgvba (qhqr arrqf gb ergver) ohg vg frrzf jbefr.

Be gb chg vg zber pbapergryl naq yvzvgvat guvatf gb zl bja pnfr, V guvax zl bja fgvzhyhf (une) gb dhvg cbea pbyq ghexrl jnf yvxr qvfpbirevat ba erqqvg gurfr yvxr cebterffviryl zber naq zber rssvpvrag qryvirel zrpunavfzf, sebz nzvanxrq bs zl lbhgu juvpu jbhyq pbyyngr cvpf sebz bgure fvgrf ba gb gur ghor fvgrf naq erqqvgc naq erqqvgyvfg sbe qvfpbirel hagvy gurer jnf whfg bar jurer vg znpuvar yrneavatrq jung lbh hcibgrq naq fubjrq lbh zber naq zber bs gung, naq V qrpvqrq, “shpx, V’ir nyjnlf orra onq ng frys-pbageby, V’z ab zngpu sbe guvf.” V qba’g yvxr gur zrqvpnyvmvat ynathntr bs “nqqvpgvba” ohg gurer vf qrsvavgryl n curabzrabybtl bs “uhu V jvfu V unqa’g qbar fb zhpu bs gung, ubj pna V znxr zlfrys srry orggre nobhg vg bu k” juvpu V fgvyy srry nobhg n ybg bs guvatf bxnl zbfgyl fbpvny zrqvn jvgu yvxrf. (Urapr jul V ervapneangr urer fb bsgra. Juvpu V guvax unf npghnyyl jbexrq bhg cerggl jryy – vs V unq orra fgrnqvyl npphzhyngvat sbyybjref urer sbe n qrpnqr V guvax gung yriry bs rkcbfher jbhyq or onq.)

(Naljnl n pbhcyr lrnef yngre naq gur fpnel cbea qryvirel zrpunavfz vf abj gur rknpg zbqry lbhat crbcyr hfr gb qvfpbire nyy zrqvn, yby! Ubcr gung tbrf jryy.)

Xrrcvat hc jvgu guvf fjrnevat bss bs cbea unf orra gbhtu guvf cnfg unys lrne jurer zl cnegare nera’g dhvgr nf zngpurq va yvovqb nf jr hfrq gb or, ohg gubfr guvatf syhpghngr naq gou gur vqrn bs n “fgernx” pna or vgf bja tnzvsvrq zbgvingvba, naq fbzrgvzrf jura V’z gelvat gb tvir zlfrys n crc gnyx gung V’z zber pncnoyr guna V tvir zlfrys perqvg sbe gung’f jung V’yy pvgr, ba zl bja sbe-vagreany-hfr erfhzr.

Naljnl lbh jrer cebonoyl ubcvat sbe fbzr VEY vasyngvba gvcf juvpu V’z abg dhnyvsvrq gb tvir. (V pbhyq nfx PungTCG, ohg fb pbhyq lbh, naq V qrsvavgryl jbhyqa’g jnag gb fnl nalguvat nobhg gur zrqvpny nqivfnovyvgl bs nalguvat vg fhttrfgrq! Shaal bar gb vzntvar hfvat gur tenaqzn rkcybvg ba gubhtu yby.) Ohg znlor zl sbyybjref pna uryc – nal gnxref?

{{Translation of response:

Alright, so first, I want to thank you because this was a reality check against my suppositions. The statement as I originally made it doesn’t stand up to much scrutiny; not just in cases like yours but in even the most mainstream taste. Fantasies aren’t reality or even a poor version of reality, and there are plenty of cases where they’re actively better; certainly the badness doesn’t flow over: it would be an unusual monamorous person who didn’t sometimes fantasize about other people, even though cheating is wrong; the bloodlust indulged in shooters or megalomania in strategy games would be dangerous in another context but fine in it, and so on. I won’t say it never carries over as an iron principle but certainly I wouldn’t look at an inflation fetish askance in the same way I might someone with elaborate fantasies of torturing strangers to death, even though actually inflating someone would be bad, as you note. I like grimdark RPGs and they’re their own good thing and not a pale reflection of actual grim darkness, which is bad.

What I think I would still stand by is that I think pornography, at the very least in the modal case, is a superstimulus in a way I see kind of everything trending towards. Pornography is probably less dangerous than most other superstimuli of this sort because unless you go off the deep end you’re not spending forever on it, although I think there’s an incentive gradient towards that. When my dad came over he would just lay on the couch and watch Fail Army videos for hours; obviously there’s a bigger issue there with like workplace exhaustion (dude needs to retire) but it seems worse.

Or to put it more concretely and limiting things to my own case, I think my own stimulus (har) to quit porn cold turkey was like discovering on reddit these like progressively more and more efficient delivery mechanisms, from aminaked of my youth which would collate pics from other sites on to the tube sites and redditp and redditlist for discovery until there was just one where it machine learninged what you upvoted and showed you more and more of that, and I decided, “fuck, I’ve always been bad at self-control, I’m no match for this.” I don’t like the medicalizing language of “addiction” but there is definitely a phenomenology of “huh I wish I hadn’t done so much of that, how can I make myself feel better about it oh x” which I still feel about a lot of things okay mostly social media with likes. (Hence why I reincarnate here so often. Which I think has actually worked out pretty well – if I had been steadily accumulating followers here for a decade I think that level of exposure would be bad.)

(Anyway a couple years later and the scary porn delivery mechanism is now the exact model young people use to discover all media, lol! Hope that goes well.)

Keeping up with this swearing off of porn has been tough this past half year where my partner aren’t quite as matched in libido as we used to be, but those things fluctuate and tbh the idea of a “streak” can be its own gamified motivation, and sometimes when I’m trying to give myself a pep talk that I’m more capable than I give myself credit for that’s what I’ll cite, on my own for-internal-use resume.

Anyway you were probably hoping for some IRL inflation tips which I’m not qualified to give. (I could ask ChatGPT, but so could you, and I definitely wouldn’t want to say anything about the medical advisability of anything it suggested! Funny one to imagine using the grandma exploit on though lol.) But maybe my followers can help – any takers?}}

I do think the one defensible motivation for regulating porn (beyond the obvious workplace safety and consent issues) is the porn-as-superstimulus hypothesis, but the issue is, as you note, it’s no more a superstimulus than, like, most of the consumer entertainment economy these days, so for consistency’s sake you’d have to crack down on most everything. And maybe that’s a bullet people are willing to bite, but what doesn’t make sense is singling out porn as a unique category of evil.

I will say that the expansion of gambling (esp. sports gambling and mobile gacha) recently has been much more of a mess than I possibly-naively assumed it would be, and I have moved in the direction of being more willing to take a hard line against superstimuli than I was a couple years ago. But with pornography I don’t see any plausible regulation mechanism that doesn’t burn down a bunch of licit creative expression, so ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ ?

I wrote this in tag register but it turned out *way* too long to fit in the tags, so here we go:

#I’ve been thinking about this kind of thing lately

#how in a lot of ways I’ve so far gotten off lightly

#(…so to speak)

#by‚ like‚ running the brain equivalent of Solaris

#approximately nobody bothers to write malware specifically targeted at me

#occasionally I encounter stuff broad-spectrum enough to hit me

#–I generally have to avoid letting potato chips into the house–

#but there’s so much that just whooshes right by

#(also…a while back a mobile-game company attempted to bribe me to try their freemium casino)

#(I did try it‚ because I could really do with the bribe money and I knew I could refrain from microtransactions)

#(and wow it is *incredibly* fucking disturbing just how optimised for addictiveness that fucking thing is)

#(like‚ I could feel myself having a memetic immune response to it)

#(“playing” that “game” was miserable‚ in the way that a fever is miserable)

#((let’s see who burns first, motherfucker))

#(on day 2 I bailed on the agreement)

#(they’d offered me sixty honest-to-God actual Canadian dollars)

#(–bear in mind that for sufficiently easy work‚ the wage at which I am ambivalent about whether to take a gig is about $1.50 an hour–)

#(and *that was not enough to be worth further exposure to that Hell*)

#((I am torn on whether to read Addiction by Design or whether it would just fill me with despair))

#“we’ll increasingly be defined by what we say no to‚” I recently read in a post from 2010

#( http://www.paulgraham.com/addiction.html )

#((“the last thing I want is for the Internet to follow me out into the world‚” he also said‚ on why he didn’t own a smartphone))

#((which on the one hand sure is a thing I have heard a lot of horror stories about))

#((and on the other hand smartphones are not in fact a package deal))

#((months after I wrote it‚ I still occasionally have people come up to me and thank me for my post on offline-first smartphone setups))

#(((we had a lovely chat about Graphene)))

#anyway‚ as I was saying a few months ago

#as the process of optimisation becomes increasingly automated‚ it becomes possible to efficiently target smaller and smaller niches

#I live in a world in which the main limiting factor on how many works of pornography I can read is how many *exist*

#and in which the process of exploration is inherently aversive because statistically almost all attempts dredge up only bad works

#and all but one attempt‚ ever‚ has dredged up at most okay works

#a machine-learning upvote algorithm simply wouldn’t have enough to work with

#it’s a very different world from the one Oligo lives in

#I’m not adapted to his world

#(I mean nobody really is‚ that’s the point‚ but me less than most)

#kind of scared of the prospect of joining him there

#(I suppose I do have the advantage of an estrogen-dominant hormonal profile)

#((I’m ovulating as I write this and I have been feeling so much pity for people who are *stuck* being fertile *all of the time*‚ holy shit))

#(…but pornography‚ the actual well-done stuff‚ *itself* heightens the libido)

#(like for *days* afterward)

#(I really did not expect how affecting it would be on that front)

#((although I guess maybe I should have; maybe it’s not actually so different from general lingering effects of fiction?))

#((…mind you‚ there were a bunch of complaints when access to novels first became widespread that boiled down to “they’re superstimuli’‘‚ weren’t there))

#(like on the one hand it’s good‚ if I *want* a higher libido‚ to have options less invasive and with fewer side effects than sleep deprivation)

#(but it was also a little unnerving and seems like it might have the potential for a vicious cycle)

#((…although in fairness it turns out that the feeling of looking at a notification email for a new porn chapter is *very different* from the feeling of looking at a bag of potato chips in my cupboard))

#((something to look forward to for later‚ rather than something tempting in the moment))

#((so that seems hopeful))


Tags:

#reply via reblog #tag rambles #sexuality and lack thereof #people who can distinguish between their drive for sleep and drive for sex fascinate me #is the blue I see the same as the blue you see #disappointed permanent resident of The Future #nsfw text #drugs cw? #gambling


{{next post in sequence}}

seat-safety-switch:

Gambling on auto racing is practically unheard of. Horses, yes. Dogs, absolutely. Boats, you bet. NASCAR? Not really. This confused me, until I did a quick web search, and then saw that there were indeed skeezy gambling operations that would take bets on virtually anything under the sun.

This all makes sense. As a bookie, you don’t really care what you are facilitating the betting on, so much as you care that there is a clear winner and a lot of clear losers. It may also be in your best professional interest to not offer betting on things that are considered sacrosanct, such as child beauty pageants, lest the collective anger of society be focussed upon your person.

Autocross, then, is the perfect venue for a bit of money-changing, or at least it would be if anyone bet on it. So, like any other scam, I had to bring in some new blood. Here’s the secret: casinos are full of people who love to gamble, and don’t need much of a push. Certainly it is distasteful, but not particularly illegal, as long as the casino boss doesn’t notice that you are trying to work his flock on his territory. Also, the parking lot is usually full of some really primo mid-1990s Toyotas that are hanging onto life by a thread.

Now, the real secret is to not bet on myself. Although you could argue that this constituted “throwing” an event, investigators soon found that I had no chance in hell of ever getting anywhere close to the top 20 of any event, even those with 19 or fewer competitors. Suckers: through savvy planning and analysis of my foes, I soon made no less than seven dollars profit.


Tags:

#unreality cw #storytime #gambling #anything that makes me laugh this much deserves a reblog

fremulon:

“So,” Crowley said, stretching his legs out and taking another sip of wine, “what’re you up to these days?”

“Nothing particular,” Aziraphale said. “Although I do have to pop over to Nice for a blessing next week, but that shouldn’t take long.”

“Next week, huh? Mind covering a minor temptation for me, then, while you’re in the area?”

“I suppose so,” said Aziraphale. “What precisely is it?”

“It’s in Monte Carlo, actually,” Crowley said, “just popping in to the casino for a smidge of troublemaking. Nothing complicated.”

“Ah—” said Aziraphale, and shifted uncomfortably. “I’m afraid I can’t go to Monte Carlo.”

Crowley snorted. “What, are you too virtuous for gambling now? Don’t go using that line on me. I’ve seen how you get over baccarat.”

“No, no, it’s not that,” Aziraphale said. “It’s just—I can’t go to Monte Carlo.”

“Why not?”

“I’ve been banned,” Aziraphale muttered.

“Sorry, what?”

“I’ve been banned. From Monte Carlo.”

“What did you do?”

“In my view,” said Aziraphale primly, “I wasn’t doing anything wrong at all. I simply took the time to implement a bit of strategy and mathematics. Anyone could do the same. It’s hardly cheating.”

Crowley took a second to parse this. “You got kicked out of a casino for counting cards.”

“Not before I’d accumulated several thousand pounds doing it,” said Aziraphale, in a most un-angelic fashion.

Crowley had a sudden image of him, all buttoned up in waistcoat and bowtie, spectacles perched on the bridge of his nose, sitting at a blackjack table, his soft hands laying down the cards, the complete sincerity in his voice as he’d say oh, dear me, it looks like I’ve won again, fancy that, the canny glint in his eye that anyone looking less carefully than Crowley would miss.

It was a remarkably compelling image, and Crowley let out a low, inadvertent whistle.

“So, I can’t help with your temptation, I’m afraid,” Aziraphale said. 

“Yeah, no, that’s all right,” Crowley said, “but, uh, have you been…banned anywhere else?”

Aziraphale went pink. “It is possible,” he said, carefully, “that I might find myself unwelcome at several establishments in Las Vegas, as well.”

“You’ve been on some sort of casino-defrauding world tour, and you didn’t tell me?” 

“Don’t make fun,” Aziraphale said. “It’s only a hobby.”

“Yeah, yeah,” Crowley said, “getting booted from gambling establishments, right up there with manuscript collection on the list of your notable hobbies.”

“This is exactly why I didn’t want to tell you—”

“Look,” Crowley interrupted, “have you, ah—ever been to Atlantic City? In America?”

Aziraphale shook his head. 

“Well,” Crowley said, “pretty sure New Jersey could do with a bit of divine intervention.”

A small smile crept onto Aziraphale’s face. “It’s a tempting thought,” he said. 


Tags:

#Good Omens #fanfic #anything that makes me laugh this much deserves a reblog #gambling

On matched betting

{{previous post in sequence}}


jbeshir:

brin-bellway:

jbeshir:

reasonableapproximation:

I decided to do a little bit of matched betting to earn a small amount of money. I used the guide at https://matchedbettingblog.com (and their calculator.

So far:

  • I made about £10 profit from Coral, which is lower than it should have been but partly because I misread their odds for my qualifying bet and lost ~£3 on that instead of ~£0.50. This was a few weeks ago, now I’m doing a second bet.
  • I chose ComeOn for my second because they had a £10 free bet, and small bets require less stake. They aren’t a very good website. I had trouble finding things to bet on and they don’t seem to offer very good odds. I expect to make about £6.50 profit from them. (I’m betting on France v Paraguay which started a few minutes ago.)
  • My betfair liability is ~£40 to make £7 on a £10 bet. To extract closer to £10 (well, £9.50 thanks to commission), liability needs to go up crazy fast. Also, if my free bet was x times larger, liability would also need to go up x times. (“Liability” here is not how much money I risk losing, but how much I need to have in betfair. If I lose that money it just means I gain money somewhere else. But betfair is the convenient place for it to be.)
  • This does not seem a very time-efficient way of earning money, though I do expect to get faster.
  • When I withdrew money from Coral it went into my paypal account. I think I can use that money as partial payment when I make charity donations, maybe? I’m not entirely sure how to use it if not, I can link a bank account to my paypal account but effort.
  • I should probably sign up for Smarkets, but I already had a betfair account so I’ve been using them.
  • It looks like I have a free £5 bet from betfair? I’m not sure where that’s from. Presumably it’s stake not returned, so… I’m not sure how to calculate my optimal strategy using it. I could do the arithmetic, but I might just use it to place a bet, for simplicity.
  • It’s possible to do this as an ongoing thing, but it doesn’t seem very convenient. It looks like you need to do things like “place bet on this game while it’s in play”, which is only like a two hour window (and ideally you place at half time to avoid odds moving, which is even shorter), and you only get a few pounds at a time.
  • I’ve heard that this does bad things to my credit score. I don’t know how much I should care.
  • I have not received noticeable amounts of annoying emails from Coral or Betfair. Or ComeOn, but too soon to tell with them.

I made upwards of a grand from this during the last year and a bit; I did it fairly intensively for a while farming easier/larger signup bonuses, and then just settled into collecting money whenever any of the betting sites I’d signed up for sent me an email offer I could turn into free money readily.

A common thing is that I get an email offering me a free in-play bet of up to £50 if I place a same-size pre-match bet, which means by being around at the time of the match and jumping on it I get a free £30-£35ish. Just today, though, I woke up to an email offer from Betfair for a refund on losses up to £100 on bets settled today or tomorrow, and set myself up with them against Smarkets to get a free guaranteed £75-£80ish out of that. The annoying emails are not really annoying! They are actually quite handy. They think you are a potential gambling addict and will offer you free money, and you can be like “sure thank you I will take your free money”.

Smarkets is better for any markets with enough volume; I would sign up, it’s worth it for the 2% commission vs 5%. You will still need to use Betfair for any markets where volume is low. You also will need Smarkets to match Betfair; if you try to match Betfair with themselves they will get angry and refuse to give you the offer, and maybe bar your account if especially pissy. Betfair never used to send out offers, but this is the second I’ve had from them in the past few months so maybe they’ve shifted strategies.

The biggest individual profits I made were from large signup free credit offers, which were in the region of £200 but had to be turned over lots of times so it only nets to about £120ish. /do/ account for accumulating losses to cycling; things which have to turned over more than ~5 times are liable to either be a lot less profitable than they look or actually a net loss, because each matched pair makes a small guaranteed loss leaking your profit.

Matched betting really does work! The big limiter is that you need to do a lot of research to understand what you’re doing, and you need to stick to common sports or else deal very carefully with differences in adjudication between markets, so we’re talking this being for quite clever people, and you need upwards of a grand in capital for any of the bigger things; to jump on that offer I got today, I had to have £800ish around to tie up for the next week or so (withdrawal is reliable and safe, but takes days, unlike the instant deposit) and I had to have it immediately on hand.

This limits the people who do it enough that we’re an acceptable business expense to hook the potential gambling addicts they’re after. It does emphasise how often they must hook people and how much they must get, though, that they will put so much free money out there as bait. That said, I’m not sure how many of the big signup offers are still around, and I get the impression an increasing number of offers are designed to be hard to match.

…are British gambling companies more trustworthy than American ones?

Word in American supplementary-income circles is, if you think you’ve found a loophole in a set of gambling rules that will allow you to get risk-free money out of it, the loophole will usually turn out not to exist. If necessary, casinos will straight-up lie about what they will and will not do, in order to prevent you from exploiting it. (I’ve heard so many stories of casinos that just *didn’t pay* a promised sign-up bonus, and didn’t respond to messages about it.)

*Sometimes* you get places that actually give you the bonuses they say they will, under the circumstances they say they will. But because a significant portion of them don’t, and you don’t know for sure which category any given instance will be in (and you can’t necessarily trust that it will at least be consistent person-to-person), the money is no longer risk-free: you’re meta-gambling.

Trustworthy to do what they said they will when they said they would, yes. There’s regulators that insist on it.

In general if they pick up on you as probably pulling matched shenanigans your account can get closed after, or much more commonly, flagged as no longer eligible for offers (I think two of mine have been?), but they cannot arbitrarily rescind an offer that brought them trade AFTER extending it, and in the rare cases of smaller iffier companies which have done that, threatening them with the regulator has brought them to behave.

In general, the terms they have do forbid guaranteed win betting, so if you find one of the rare offers which can be exploited within that single provider without pulling in an exchange for a guaranteed profit you are liable to have your account closed and money refunded (this happened to me with Sky Bets about two years before I got into matched betting, they ill-advisedly put out an offer which included roulette, so you just turned your money over on that and withdrew. they cancelled everyone who did that).

In theory, those terms might preclude matched betting- however, they do not have access to the betting exchanges and can’t see that you are doing it, and without the ability to prove you are doing it they must do what they said they were going to do. So matched bettors are just a cost of business they have to bite.

Much more common in the smaller iffier companies are terms which are impossible; a free bonus that must be bet 20 times before any winnings can be withdrawn or something, at minimum rates and overheads that prevent it ever being profitable. Or a huge list of conditions that in practice you are going to struggle to meet. Those you just don’t touch.

Some of this is because of gambling’s unambiguously generally legal if regulated state in the UK and much of Europe; the bigger betting companies are big brands; Sky, for example, is the big satellite TV company, and Sky Bets is a betting subsidiary they made, comparable to if the US had a Verizon Bets or something. Discourages scumminess. I think some of it might be that casinos are just plain bad relative to other kinds of businesses even within gambling for this, though; I would be leery trying it in person for the first time. I am not sure where that intuition comes from.

(I would also note that the exchanges generally don’t care if you are doing matched betting. They profit just fine- you are effectively taking the offers and “selling” them on the exchange to other exchange participants, and they get their commission in the process. It’s only the end extending the offer which cares.)


Tags:

#(June 2017) #(I was actually referring to online casinos but I didn’t bother to clarify) #conversational aglets #gambling #adventures in human capitalism

On matched betting

jbeshir:

reasonableapproximation:

I decided to do a little bit of matched betting to earn a small amount of money. I used the guide at https://matchedbettingblog.com (and their calculator.

So far:

  • I made about £10 profit from Coral, which is lower than it should have been but partly because I misread their odds for my qualifying bet and lost ~£3 on that instead of ~£0.50. This was a few weeks ago, now I’m doing a second bet.
  • I chose ComeOn for my second because they had a £10 free bet, and small bets require less stake. They aren’t a very good website. I had trouble finding things to bet on and they don’t seem to offer very good odds. I expect to make about £6.50 profit from them. (I’m betting on France v Paraguay which started a few minutes ago.)
  • My betfair liability is ~£40 to make £7 on a £10 bet. To extract closer to £10 (well, £9.50 thanks to commission), liability needs to go up crazy fast. Also, if my free bet was x times larger, liability would also need to go up x times. (“Liability” here is not how much money I risk losing, but how much I need to have in betfair. If I lose that money it just means I gain money somewhere else. But betfair is the convenient place for it to be.)
  • This does not seem a very time-efficient way of earning money, though I do expect to get faster.
  • When I withdrew money from Coral it went into my paypal account. I think I can use that money as partial payment when I make charity donations, maybe? I’m not entirely sure how to use it if not, I can link a bank account to my paypal account but effort.
  • I should probably sign up for Smarkets, but I already had a betfair account so I’ve been using them.
  • It looks like I have a free £5 bet from betfair? I’m not sure where that’s from. Presumably it’s stake not returned, so… I’m not sure how to calculate my optimal strategy using it. I could do the arithmetic, but I might just use it to place a bet, for simplicity.
  • It’s possible to do this as an ongoing thing, but it doesn’t seem very convenient. It looks like you need to do things like “place bet on this game while it’s in play”, which is only like a two hour window (and ideally you place at half time to avoid odds moving, which is even shorter), and you only get a few pounds at a time.
  • I’ve heard that this does bad things to my credit score. I don’t know how much I should care.
  • I have not received noticeable amounts of annoying emails from Coral or Betfair. Or ComeOn, but too soon to tell with them.

I made upwards of a grand from this during the last year and a bit; I did it fairly intensively for a while farming easier/larger signup bonuses, and then just settled into collecting money whenever any of the betting sites I’d signed up for sent me an email offer I could turn into free money readily.

A common thing is that I get an email offering me a free in-play bet of up to £50 if I place a same-size pre-match bet, which means by being around at the time of the match and jumping on it I get a free £30-£35ish. Just today, though, I woke up to an email offer from Betfair for a refund on losses up to £100 on bets settled today or tomorrow, and set myself up with them against Smarkets to get a free guaranteed £75-£80ish out of that. The annoying emails are not really annoying! They are actually quite handy. They think you are a potential gambling addict and will offer you free money, and you can be like “sure thank you I will take your free money”.

Smarkets is better for any markets with enough volume; I would sign up, it’s worth it for the 2% commission vs 5%. You will still need to use Betfair for any markets where volume is low. You also will need Smarkets to match Betfair; if you try to match Betfair with themselves they will get angry and refuse to give you the offer, and maybe bar your account if especially pissy. Betfair never used to send out offers, but this is the second I’ve had from them in the past few months so maybe they’ve shifted strategies.

The biggest individual profits I made were from large signup free credit offers, which were in the region of £200 but had to be turned over lots of times so it only nets to about £120ish. /do/ account for accumulating losses to cycling; things which have to turned over more than ~5 times are liable to either be a lot less profitable than they look or actually a net loss, because each matched pair makes a small guaranteed loss leaking your profit.

Matched betting really does work! The big limiter is that you need to do a lot of research to understand what you’re doing, and you need to stick to common sports or else deal very carefully with differences in adjudication between markets, so we’re talking this being for quite clever people, and you need upwards of a grand in capital for any of the bigger things; to jump on that offer I got today, I had to have £800ish around to tie up for the next week or so (withdrawal is reliable and safe, but takes days, unlike the instant deposit) and I had to have it immediately on hand.

This limits the people who do it enough that we’re an acceptable business expense to hook the potential gambling addicts they’re after. It does emphasise how often they must hook people and how much they must get, though, that they will put so much free money out there as bait. That said, I’m not sure how many of the big signup offers are still around, and I get the impression an increasing number of offers are designed to be hard to match.

…are British gambling companies more trustworthy than American ones?

Word in American supplementary-income circles is, if you think you’ve found a loophole in a set of gambling rules that will allow you to get risk-free money out of it, the loophole will usually turn out not to exist. If necessary, casinos will straight-up lie about what they will and will not do, in order to prevent you from exploiting it. (I’ve heard so many stories of casinos that just *didn’t pay* a promised sign-up bonus, and didn’t respond to messages about it.)

*Sometimes* you get places that actually give you the bonuses they say they will, under the circumstances they say they will. But because a significant portion of them don’t, and you don’t know for sure which category any given instance will be in (and you can’t necessarily trust that it will at least be consistent person-to-person), the money is no longer risk-free: you’re meta-gambling.


Tags:

#(stuff like this is probably part of why I’ve acquired an alief that any company advertising online is untrustworthy) #(I have to actively fight the tendency to reduce my level of goodwill towards a company I already liked if I see online ads for them) #the only way to get guaranteed money out of a gambling place is to help them inflate their search-engine rankings #by pretending to do a legitimate search for gambling-related keywords and then clicking their link in the search results #and sticking around just long enough #to trick the search algorithm into thinking you were interested in the site (and it was therefore a good match) #every so often you find some on Mechanical-Turk-type places paying four cents per click #though I haven’t seen any in a while so it’s possible Google outsmarted them once and for all #reply via reblog #gambling #(the following category tag was added retroactively:) #adventures in human capitalism


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