TOASTYSTATS: Did the US election influence fanfic production?
I’ve heard some folks talking about using fanfic to cope with/distract themselves from the recent US election (I’m in this camp, though I’m not ignoring the real world), and others, like the hosts of @fansplaining, discuss not being able to focus on fandom right now. I wondered which of these impulses was currently stronger overall in fandom.
TL;DR: as of two weeks following the 2016 election, there’s been a big post-election spike in fanfic production on AO3 (~30% increase) – which is unusual for this time of year. Though, of course, correlation is not causation – there could be some other cause(s) at play. And while some people may be turning to fandom for distraction, there’s a bigger increase in ‘Angst’ than ‘Fluff.’
I gathered daily data from AO3 for the pat 5 years in order to compare this year to past ones. I figured even if we did see a spike or a drop in fanworks, that might be normal following an election – or just normal for November. The past 5 years have the benefit of containing another presidential election, as well as a midterm election and two off-years. I looked at the total amount of fanworks produced in each of the two weeks leading up to the US election, and in each of the two weeks following it. (If you look at the above graph, 0 on the x axis is Election Day – Nov 8, 2016.)
Based on the above graph, we can see that most years have a fairly flat production rate surrounding the election. 2016, however, departs strongly from this pattern with a 32% increase from the two weeks leading up to the election.
The United States is about to elect a new president. I’ve previously polled UK Grindr users on Scottish independence, the 2015 generalelection, and Brexit. This time, I decided to poll US Grindr users on who they think should be leading their country.
The following is a representative sample of the replies.
(Identifiable faces have been censored.)
For every state, I aimed for a number of responses equivalent to each state’s number of presidential electors – from 55 for California to 3 for Delaware, Vermont, Alaska etc. A few fell a little short as I was banned (my 10th Grindr ban to date) just before I could finish, though most matched or exceeded the target. The number next to each state is the number of responses I received, though the percentages are only taken from the responses that can reasonably be interpreted as a decisive answer – undecided voters, non-voters, and evasive responses are listed separately. Major candidates who received 0 votes are also listed.
CALIFORNIA: 53
68% (21) Hillary Clinton 6% (2) Donald Trump 6% (2) Bernie Sanders 6% (2) “Yo momma” 3% (1) Gary Johnson 3% (1) Barack Obama 3% (1) John F. Kennedy 3% (1) “Myself”
0% (0) Jill Stein
2 Undecided 4 None of the above 3 Not eligible to vote 13 Evasive or unclear responses
0% (0) Donald Trump 0% (0) Jill Stein 0% (0) Gary Johnson
1 Evasive or unclear responses
0 Did not respond
SOUTH DAKOTA: 3
100% (2) Hillary Clinton
0% (0) Donald Trump 0% (0) Jill Stein 0% (0) Gary Johnson
1 None of the above
1 Did not respond
NORTH DAKOTA: 2
100% (2) Hillary Clinton
0% (0) Donald Trump 0% (0) Jill Stein 0% (0) Gary Johnson
1 Did not respond
WYOMING: 2
100% (2) Donald Trump
0% (0) Hillary Clinton 0% (0) Jill Stein 0% (0) Gary Johnson
1 Did not respond
MONTANA: 1
100% (1) Donald Trump
0% (0) Hillary Clinton 0% (0) Jill Stein 0% (0) Gary Johnson
8 Did not respond
WASHINGTON, D.C.: 2
100% (1) Hillary Clinton
0% (0) Donald Trump 0% (0) Jill Stein 0% (0) Gary Johnson
1 Evasive or unclear responses
3 Did not respond
The overall US-wide vote is as follows.
63.25% (191) Hillary Clinton 17.88% (54) Donald Trump 3.31% (10) Jill Stein 1.99% (6) Gary Johnson 1.99% (6) Bernie Sanders 0.99% (3) “Yo momma” 0.66% (2) Deez Nuts 0.66% (2) Cthulhu 0.66% (2) Mickey Mouse 0.33% (1) Evan McMullin 0.33% (1) Vermin Supreme 0.33% (1) Don Bacon 0.33% (1) Barack Obama 0.33% (1) John F. Kennedy 0.33% (1) Ronald Reagan 0.33% (1) Vladimir Putin 0.33% (1) Eric Andre 0.33% (1) Beyoncé 0.33% (1) Harambe 0.33% (1) Mighty Mouse 0.33% (1) Patti LuPone 0.33% (1) Prince 0.33% (1) Cardi B from Love & Hip Hop 0.33% (1) Jesus 0.33% (1) Katya 0.33% (1) “Space raptors” 0.33% (1) “A giant meteor”
In addition, 1.99% (6) voted for “Myself”, although these aren’t lumped together as they refer to separate individuals – namely, “WOOF!”, “MiamiLatino”, “nICE GUY!!!!!”, “2017 ready now”, “no pic don’t”, and “DatFckboi”. 0.66% (2) also voted for their own penis – 4 if we count pictures of a respondent’s penis as an actual answer to the poll.
Not counted towards the percentage are the following responses:
19 Undecided 60 None of the above 9 Not eligible to vote 181 Evasive or unclear responses
“Evasive or unclear responses” can be roughly divided as follows:
55 Miscellaneous evasion 41 Explicitly declined to answer, “none of your business” etc 25 Irrelevant or incomprehensible 18 Too horny to engage politically 13 Total bewilderment 12 “Anyone but…” (10 Trump, 2 Clinton, 1 Johnson, 1 Stein) 7 Overt hostility 3 Nudes
Here are the number of states candidates win when only Grindr votes.
Hillary Clinton: 42 (6 as part of a tie) Donald Trump: 13 (7 as part of a tie) Bernie Sanders: 3 (3 as part of a tie) Jill Stein: 1 (1 as part of a tie) Evan McMullin: 1 (1 as part of a tie) Deez Nuts: 1 (1 as part of a tie) Beyoncé: 1 (1 as part of a tie) Ronald Reagan: 1 (1 as part of a tie) ″A giant meteor”: 1 (1 as part of a tie) ″My big fat cock”: 1 (1 as part of a tie) Gary Johnson: 0
In the electoral college, this should translate into the following numbers of electoral votes. When dealing with ties, electors are divided evenly between candidates.
Finally, here is the electoral map, according to Grindr.
Hillary Clinton comfortably clears her target of 270 electoral votes, and the Democrats are re-elected. Grindr is, for once, with her.
Tags:
#long post #nsfw text #nsfw image #Grindr #oh my god they’re doing a series of these #I remember seeing one of the previous ones #anything that makes me laugh this much deserves a reblog #election 2016
Remember: Do not move to Canada in response to this election.
Move to Florida. To Ohio. To Pennsylvania. We need you there for Warren/Booker 2020.
Here is a fact that it seems like a lot of people don’t know, and which is relevant to the decision: in America, you do not lose your vote if you move out of the country. Even if your move is permanent. Even if you were a minor when you moved away. Unless you renounce your citizenship–note that most countries will let you hold up to three citizenships simultaneously, and Canada in particular is perfectly happy to let you keep your American citizenship while becoming a Canadian citizen (if you don’t already have three, and if you do it presumably doesn’t have to be the American one you give up in exchange)–you retain voting rights indefinitely. Jurisdiction-wise, you vote as if you still lived in your most recent American residence.
(People who are American citizens only through their parents and have never actually lived in the country may be able to vote depending on where their parents lived: states vary. Check out the website linked above for details.)
I don’t know what happens if you move to a swing state just to establish it as your voting jurisdiction, then move to Canada. I don’t know if there are any consequences if the government catches you at it, and I don’t know how likely they are to catch you. Anyone interested in doing that should look into it further. But at the very least, if you already live in a swing state, you don’t have to choose between voting there and leaving the country. You can do both.
I mean, you do lose going door-to-door canvassing and whatnot, I suppose. But people planning on moving to Canada because of Trump who wouldn’t have done it anyway are probably doing it because they expect to be in danger if they stay. Staying in a dangerous situation in order to go canvassing is…well, if you want to do that, you do you, but it seems above and beyond the call of duty to me.
Tags:
#home of the brave #election 2016 #our home and cherished land #reply via reblog #this is the third post I saw on Tuesday which #appeared to be written under the assumption that People Like Me do not exist #I’m responding directly to this one because its People Like Me #is ”people whose relationship with the American government is like mine” #and our existence is an external fact that I can point to #the others were ”people whose minds work like mine” #which is much harder to prove and much likelier to lead to goalpost-moving #”we totally believe you exist! we were just using universal language for rhetorical effect! stop derailing!” #and for all I know maybe they’d mean it when they’d claim they were being rhetorical by pretending I don’t exist #let’s just say I’ve been feeling that authoritarianism post again lately
it’s like a horrible reverse rapture and I know if I eat all the ice cream I’ll have a sugar crash and my teeth will hurt and I won’t be able to sleep but I want to eat all the ice cream :-(
*hides*
To be perfectly honest, my first thought when Mom knocked on my bedroom door this morning to tell me Trump had won was “goddammit, JT is going to lose their mind”. (In part because of trying to help you keep your mind last night, but still.)
*hugs* I love you, please stay safe, and if ever you flee to Canada, I will be the first to welcome you home.
Tags:
#home of the brave #election 2016 #our home and cherished land #reply via reblog
I would suggest that there is no harm in knowing exactly what you have to do if you had to move to Canada, Australia, Japan, Israel, England etc. on short notice, if you are worried about this.
It is useful to have these things computed ahead of time in emergency situations.
A lot of people actually have procrastinated on leaving real dystopias because figuring out how to move and then moving is an effort-intensive process.
If you’re concerned that you might be forced to move, setting aside a day to work out the details of how you would do this and writing it down would
(1) likely relieve some vague feelings of unease attatched to thoughts like “I might have to leave if things start to get really bad.”
(2) make “I can just leave, I know how to do this” a more available response to the thought “things look like they are getting kind of bad”
dear everyone who is panicking about world war 3: do you want a hug?
I, too, offer hugs.
Tags:
#home of the brave #election 2016 #normally I don’t go on Tumblr first thing in the morning #but I knew there would be a post-election support group and I thought I might be able to help #(honestly not sure how much help I need myself)
Brinens and Things 